Investing.com -- Bank of America reports that global gas prices have fallen well below 2022 levels despite a large Middle East LNG supply disruption this year, with prices underperforming Brent crude.

LNG on the water has reached levels typically seen only before winter when regions such as Asia use LNG vessels as floating storage. The unusual seasonal spike stems from LNG loaded onto stranded vessels in the Persian Gulf and longer shipping routes from the US to Asia.

Kuwait continues to receive LNG from Qatar as the cargos remain within the Persian Gulf. Oman's LNG exports remain unaffected as the country lies outside the Strait. New supplies from Canada and the US over the past year have offset nearly half the lost Middle East LNG in recent months.

LNG imports into Asia have dropped to seasonal lows in recent months, according to the bank. While India has replaced most of its lost LNG supplies, other Qatar customers have had to find alternative sources, switch to other fuels such as coal, or reduce demand. China has reduced LNG imports to help ease the loss of Qatar production following the US double blockade imposed on April 13, 2026.

Coal prices have rallied as consumers have turned to coal as a replacement for LNG, with higher-than-usual temperatures adding pressure to already-tight market conditions. China has maintained its plans to limit coal overcapacity, and a fatal incident at the Liushenyu mine is likely to slow production activity.

Robust solar generation has helped European markets mitigate the impact on energy prices from Qatar LNG supply disruptions.

European gas stocks are approximately 9% below 2022 levels and roughly 15% behind the 5-year average due to weak summer-to-date gas injections. Bank of America maintains its €80/MWh fourth quarter 2026 TTF price forecast. The Netherlands recently announced nearly €1 billion in subsidies to replenish the country's low gas inventories.