Barclays analyzes gas price impact on US retailer customers
Investing.com -- Barclays released a report examining how rising gas prices affect different retailer customer bases across its coverage universe. The analysis comes as the firm awaits potential resolution in Iran that could reverse recent pressure on valuations.
The investment bank developed a consumer gas price model to assess relative exposure across its retail coverage. The framework calculates the average annualized increase in gas spending for each retailer in dollars and the impact as a percentage of annual income for each retailer's average customer.
The analysis incorporates regional and state mix, urbanicity mix, and income mix, including differences in vehicle ownership. Barclays observed approximately a 10% spread in year-over-year gas price changes across different regions.
On average, the framework points to a $942 increase in spending on gas based on current prices for retailers' customers, equating to about 1% of annual pre-tax income.
Tractor Supply (NASDAQ: TSCO) shows the most exposure, primarily due to its rural market focus where miles driven is higher and fuel consumption is elevated due to higher truck ownership. The analysis shows an increase in annual gas spending of $1,018 for its customers, which represents the highest percentage of income among covered retailers.
Dollar stores and auto parts retailers also face relatively high impacts given their lower income customer base. Barclays sees more impact for Dollar General (NYSE: DG) than Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) and O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY) than AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) or Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP) due to differences in rural exposure.
Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM) appears least exposed on a relative basis. While it has the highest impact in dollar terms, its higher income consumer base is more able to absorb higher gas costs. The retailer is also positioned toward more urban and suburban markets.
Sprouts Farmers Market (NASDAQ: SFM) also shows lower risk due to its middle to higher income consumer exposure and suburban-urban focus. The company's online sales at approximately 15% of total sales could help during periods of higher gas prices.
