Investing.com -- Macquarie analysts said the US light vehicle market is settling at a new normal of 16 million units annually, with hybrid electric vehicles emerging as the main profit driver for Asian automakers.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate reached 16.2 million units in May, up 3% year-over-year and 1% month-over-month. This figure sits slightly below Macquarie's 2026 forecast of 16.4 million units for light vehicle sales.

US light vehicle sales totaled 1.48 million units in May, flat compared to the same period last year and up 7% from April. The firm noted demand remained stable despite weak consumer sentiment and high fuel prices.

Hybrid electric vehicle penetration hit an all-time high of 17.3% in May, driven by new model launches. Hyundai-Kia HEV sales grew 126% year-over-year, while Toyota posted 10% growth and Honda recorded 22% growth. Toyota's slower growth stems from production shifts to new models, according to the report.

Battery electric vehicle penetration stayed at 6%, down from a peak of 11.6% in September 2025. Tesla, which accounts for 47% of BEV sales in the US, saw deliveries decline 12% year-over-year. Overall BEV sales fell 18% year-over-year.

Rising battery prices linked to growing demand for energy storage systems have hurt BEV profitability and sales as automakers raise prices, the firm said.

Average incentive spending rose 6% year-over-year and 3% month-over-month to $3,502 per unit, representing 8% of the average transaction price. The average transaction price stood at $46,023, up 1% year-over-year and flat month-over-month, according to JD Power data cited in the report.

Macquarie expects US SAAR to remain at the 16 million level for the next four to five years. The firm named Kia and Toyota as top picks, followed by Hyundai, citing margin benefits from expanding HEV lineups in 2026.