Investing.com -- Barclays analyst Theresa Chen warned in a note on Monday that the prospect of a U.S. crude or refined product export ban will likely generate more political noise as midterm elections approach, even as the Trump administration has so far opposed any such move.

The note arrives after a sharp deterioration in U.S.-Iran relations. Iran paused negotiations following Israel's expanded operations in Lebanon, and President Trump is said to have rejected a proposed memorandum of understanding covering both the Strait of Hormuz reopening and nuclear talks.

The weekend saw the two countries exchange air strikes, erasing much of last week's optimism around an extended ceasefire.

Barclays said that even if a deal is reached and the Strait reopens, energy prices are likely to stay elevated due to reduced refining capacity in the Middle East and dwindling global inventories heading into peak gasoline demand season.

The firm described potential export ban measures as "a cure worse than $100 oil." They added that it would be a a step that would hurt refiners and midstream companies across the infrastructure value chain.

Despite that broad negative, Barclays said it "views SUN as the likely best way to play the scenario," citing Sunoco's (NYSE: SUN) ability to capitalize on commodity price volatility and, critically, its ownership of a small Canadian refinery that would fall outside the scope of any U.S. export restrictions, allowing it to benefit from strong refining margins that domestic peers could not access.

The Trump administration has been "unwavering in its stance against any kind of export ban" so far, Barclays noted, making an actual ban unlikely but not ruling out market-moving rhetoric.