Goldman Sachs says economic convergence remains strong when weighted by population
Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs released a report Monday challenging the view that economic convergence between poor and rich nations has stalled, arguing that previous studies showing weak convergence failed to account for population size.
The investment bank said that when countries are weighted by population, economic convergence has been a consistent feature of the global economy since the 1980s, rather than being confined to the 2000-2010 period as some economists have suggested.
Goldman Sachs identified Asia's most populous nations as the key drivers of this convergence. China has driven convergence since the early 1980s, while India, Indonesia and Bangladesh have contributed from the late 1990s onwards. These four countries represent more than 40% of the global population.
Among developed economies, the US has been a positive outlier, with its GDP per capita growth continuing to outpace most other developed markets despite having one of the world's highest levels of GDP per capita.
The bank said that periods of rapid globalization, such as 2000-2010, are especially beneficial for small economies with limited domestic markets. However, for large emerging market economies, particularly in East Asia, economic convergence appears relatively robust.
Goldman Sachs said this ongoing convergence suggests that the share of global GDP represented by emerging markets, especially East Asian emerging markets, will continue to rise over time.
The bank identified risks in both directions for future convergence. The development of artificial intelligence could strengthen performance in the US and parts of East Asia, including China, South Korea and Taiwan. However, increased protectionism could reverse globalization, while climate change poses particular risks to Southern Asia and parts of Africa.
