Investing.com -- A potential breakthrough between the US and Iran may reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but policymakers shouldn’t expect central banks to pivot quickly, according to analysts at ING.

In a new note, the firm argues that even if reports of a deal prove accurate, “a breakthrough wouldn’t change much for the rapidly approaching round of central bank meetings.”

ING notes that speculation about a reopening of the Strait has become a familiar cycle, writing that such headlines “could have been written at almost any point over the past two months.”

Still, taking the scenario at face value, markets appear ready to look past the crisis. The bank notes that equities are hitting new highs, and two-year swap rates, a proxy for monetary policy expectations, have begun retracing as crude prices ease.

But ING warns the Fed and European Central Bank may respond far more cautiously.

The first reason is that oil may not fall much further even under a deal. The market will be left short by “upwards of 1.6 billion barrels when this is all said and done,” ING writes, adding that strategic reserves must be rebuilt and damaged production restored.

Their energy team does not expect crude to dip “below $90/bbl this year, even if oil flows return close to normal by July.”

Gas markets point to the same conclusion. ING has cautioned that Europe faces renewed tightness later this year, meaning price relief could prove temporary.

With inflation risks still sensitive to energy prices, ING argues that central banks will be reluctant to react to short-term market optimism, even if geopolitics improve faster than expected.