Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley analysts said Thursday that Vertiv Americas data center revenue has lagged behind gigawatt capacity additions primarily due to timing factors rather than market share losses, with the gap expected to narrow in coming years.

The investment bank noted that U.S. annual gigawatt additions in 2026 are tracking approximately 10 times above 2018-19 levels, while Vertiv Americas revenue has increased just four times during the same period. Morgan Stanley said this disconnect appears across all data center exposure in its coverage.

The analysts said U.S. industrial companies selling into data centers saw approximately 30% growth in 2023-24, accelerating to approximately 55% in 2025-26. The real artificial intelligence inflection came in 2023-24, following earlier gains during the pandemic period when cloud spending increased.

Morgan Stanley said equipment suppliers have lagged the gigawatt buildout, with annual dollar per gigawatt metrics bottoming in 2023-24 at the start of the capital expenditure inflection before improving. The analysts said leading edge dollar per gigawatt metrics remain below 2018-19 levels, signaling potential for U.S. industrial outgrowth versus gigawatt additions in 2027-28.

The bank identified two additional factors beyond timing. Data center industry leaders have likely lost market share as the market became undersupplied, which Morgan Stanley views as an opportunity over the next five years for companies including Vertiv, Eaton, Trane Technologies and Johnson Controls. Not all data center revenue for industrial companies is tied to gigawatt additions, as maintenance and replacement revenue is driven by installed base growth, which moves more slowly than annual gigawatt additions.

Using disclosures from Vertiv's last four investor days since 2019, Morgan Stanley forecasted that expansion, project revenue and startup services account for approximately 80% of Vertiv sales today versus approximately 60% in pre-pandemic years. These categories lagged the gigawatt buildout by approximately 50% in early years but have recovered in 2025-26.

The analysts said Vertiv is both lagging the buildout and gaining share in the ecosystem as gigawatt additions shift toward high-density artificial intelligence workloads where Vertiv has higher content. Morgan Stanley said its math shows Vertiv's 2030 target suggests Americas data center revenue up approximately 10 times versus 2018-19 levels, compared with industry gigawatt forecasts calling for approximately 20 times growth over this period.

Morgan Stanley said its preferred data center stocks are companies with strong relationships to industry leaders shaping future architecture, naming Vertiv, Eaton, Trane Technologies and Johnson Controls as best positioned.