Investing.com -- Wolfe Research forecasts that agentic and orchestration CPUs will drive approximately 30% growth in the CPU total addressable market through calendar year 2028, with tight TSMC capacity expected to determine market share more than performance through that period.

The research firm projects orchestration CPUs will see strong growth in 2028 as the CPU to GPU ratio increases to 1:1 for Rubin Ultra, though it expects this market to remain largely captive to GPU and XPU suppliers. The firm bases its orchestration CPU unit estimates on GPU and XPU unit projections in its Wolfe Accelerator Model.

For the agentic CPU market, Wolfe Research anticipates ARM-based CPUs will capture between 50% to 75% market share, offering better performance per watt and superior multi-threaded performance compared to x86's stronger single-threaded capabilities. Under a scenario where ARM-based designs secure 50% of agentic share, ARM's portion of the total CPU market would climb to 45% by 2028 from 15% currently.

The firm expects Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) to emerge as the biggest winner relative to company size and stock valuation, projecting server CPU revenue of $44 billion by 2028, up from $17 billion in 2026. Wolfe estimates this could drive $7 in incremental earnings per share versus 2025, pushing AMD's 2028 earnings power to $25 to $30.

For Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), despite an expanding CPU market, Wolfe forecasts market share losses in orchestration CPU as Google shifts to Axion, and in traditional and agentic CPU segments. The firm projects Intel server CPU revenue will reach $41.5 billion in 2028, up from $22.6 billion in 2026, potentially adding $1 in incremental EPS versus 2025 assuming 30% operating margin on incremental revenue.

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is expected to ship over 4 million CPUs this year, with approximately 1.3 million Vera agentic CPUs, mostly in the fourth quarter. Wolfe models incremental agentic CPU revenue of $6.6 billion in 2026, $14 billion in 2027, and $24.6 billion in 2028 at a roughly $5,000 average selling price per server CPU. Despite Nvidia capturing the largest share, the EPS impact remains modest given its substantial accelerator revenue base, with CPU expected to add $0.50 in incremental EPS versus 2025.

Arm Holdings (NASDAQ: ARM) stands to benefit through orchestration CPUs, growing agentic CPU share, and its own silicon. Under Wolfe's base case of 50% ARM share in agentic CPU by 2028, the firm models $1.5 billion in royalty revenue for 2027 growing to $2.5 billion in 2028, plus $2 billion in ARM silicon revenue in 2028. The firm estimates $1.25 in incremental EPS impact from datacenter CPU royalties and $0.30 from silicon versus 2025, driving approximately $4.50 in 2028 earnings power, though current valuation remains expensive.

The CPU growth represents approximately 20% wafer growth over the next two years for wafer fabrication equipment, though GPU and XPU are expected to remain the primary drivers of incremental leading edge wafer demand.