Investing.com -- U.S. business investment is on track for a solid year, and higher oil prices are unlikely to materially disrupt that trajectory, Goldman Sachs said, raising its full-year capital expenditure growth forecast to 7.8% from 6.5%.

In a note from analyst Elsie Peng, Goldman said real business fixed investment rose at a 10.4% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2026, a meaningful step up from the 5.6% pace recorded last year, with underlying domestic capex growth also accelerating to 5% from 2.4% in 2025.

On oil prices, Goldman pushed back on concerns that elevated energy costs could weigh on investment activity.

The firm notes that the historical relationship between higher oil prices and energy-sector capital spending "has weakened considerably in recent years as producers have prioritized capital discipline over production growth," with high-frequency data through May showing little change in drilling and production activity.

Two key drivers are expected to sustain capex momentum through year-end. Goldman estimated that AI will boost true capex growth by 3.3 percentage points in 2026, as companies press ahead with infrastructure buildout and enterprise AI adoption drives more visible software and research and development spending.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act's tax incentives are expected to contribute a further roughly 3 percentage points to capex growth.

Meanwhile, two headwinds that weighed on investment in 2025 are fading. Goldman said the drag from higher tariffs should diminish from 1.5 percentage points in 2025 to 0.7 percentage points in 2026, while the drag from normalizing factory construction should also shrink.

Goldman's updated forecasts imply full-year 2026 GDP growth of 2.1%.