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AppLovin may face reduced near-term pressure from Meta competition - Boutique

May 26, 2026 8:27 AM

Investing.com -- Edgewater Research indicated on Tuesday that Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is no longer expected to bid into non-IDFA traffic on iOS in the near term, based on feedback from the MAU trade show and recent industry conversations.

According to the research firm, two conversations at MAU and one studio discussion from two weeks prior suggested Meta's bidding into no-IDFA traffic is not imminent. A studio that spoke with Meta in early May concluded such bidding now appears more likely as a 2027 event rather than something expected soon.

During a question-and-answer session after Meta's public conference presentation at MAU, the Facebook Audience Network team also indicated that no-IDFA bidding was not expected in the immediate future. Meta continues to message plans to significantly grow its presence in iOS gaming impressions this year by over 50%, but third-party no-IDFA bidding is not described as a key variable supporting this goal.

Meta's FAN team continues to use messaging that positions itself as more aligned with the publisher ecosystem than AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP), according to Edgewater. This includes comparing an unnamed top ad network growing revenue by 70% versus in-app advertising app developer revenue growing just 12%, and asserting that unnamed network and mediation combinations can take a 50% revenue share.

Meta is focusing on tactical FAN improvements through new and improved ad formats and back-end model enhancements designed to improve both fill rates and cost per thousand impressions for in-app advertising publishers.

Edgewater noted that Meta is validating the industry's push toward embracing more in-app advertising, expecting in-app ads to grow at a 12.5% compound annual growth rate versus an 8% rate for in-app purchases. Meta cited that just 5% of users pay within games, leaving 95% that must be monetized with ads.

The research firm stated this development could benefit both AppLovin and Unity Software (NYSE: U) by creating a simpler near-term setup, as the perceived imminent headline risk from Meta bidding appears to have faded.

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