Investing.com -- The post-earnings share price decline for one major software name has been excessive given the limited nature of the miss, Jefferies told investors in a note Thursday, arguing that the stock's valuation has fallen to levels not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Analyst Brent Thill said the market's reaction to Intuit's earnings appeared "harsh on 1 pt lower FY26 guide for tax," noting that the TurboTax shortfall represents only around one quarter of Intuit's overall business, while the remaining three quarters (small and medium business and Credit Karma) beat expectations.

The firm noted that Intuit's tax segment has beaten estimates in four of the prior seven fiscal years and should bounce back.

Intuit shares were trading after hours at 12 times calendar year 2027 price-to-earnings, a level Jefferies said was last seen in 2009 during the financial crisis and below management's own commitment of at least mid-teens medium-term earnings per share growth.

"Hard to see P/E fall below 10x, or ~$280 level," Thill wrote. The stock is currently down 16.9% premarket.

Among the positives, Jefferies highlighted TurboTax Live revenue growing 36% in fiscal 2026, Credit Karma revenue of $631 million beating both Jefferies and Street estimates by a wide margin, and mid-market online solutions revenue growing approximately 38% year-on-year.

Even so, Jefferies lowered its price target to $550 from $650, based on 14 times EV/EBITDA, while maintaining its Buy rating.

The firm "continues to believe AI threats are more perceived than real" for Intuit, which it said has "consistently delivered despite occasional quarterly volatility."