Evercore finds strong AI networking demand in latest channel checks
Investing.com -- Evercore's latest channel checks on AI networking show scale-out demand remains strong and continues to be limited by supply constraints, according to a research note. The firm maintained Outperform ratings on NASDAQ:NVDA, NASDAQ:MRVL, NASDAQ:AVGO, and NASDAQ:MTSI based on the findings.
For Nvidia, the checks indicated that NVLink remains the most proven scale-up fabric. The company's NVLink Fusion provides a path to extend the ecosystem to custom ASICs. Nvidia is expected to lead CPO adoption in the 2027-28 timeframe. Copper connections will remain within racks for Rubin, with CPO used for inter-rack connections, while intra-rack CPO is planned for Feynman. The company is targeting 150,000 to 300,000 Spectrum CPO switches in 2027.
For Marvell, the NVLink Fusion partnership may reduce the company's focus on UALink. The firm's 800G DSP share is expected to remain high and potentially increase above 80% as Broadcom prioritizes 1.6T. Marvell's 1.6T share is expected to increase in 2027 versus 2026. AWS demand for 10 million 6.4T NPO chiplets in 2028 depends on Celestial AI demonstrating its switch and passing field trial and reliability tests.
Broadcom is viewed as a frontrunner for scale-up CPO and holds 1.6T DSP market share leadership. The company may shift its CPO strategy from MZM-based to Microring based, mirroring Nvidia's strategy.
Astera Labs continues to move quickly and provide customer support beyond expectations for a younger and sub-scale supplier. The company's PCIe scale-up switch should see growing demand through 2027. UALink traction remains mixed, while the company is aggressively investing in optics.
For Macom, the company's 200G/lane photodetector market share remains high but faces increasing competition, particularly from SiFotonics. Some challenges related to 2.5D stacking may result in lower 1.6T TIA share.
