Nvidia earnings preview: Morgan Stanley highlights key metrics to watch
Investing.com -- Nvidia is scheduled to report its first-quarter earnings on Wednesday after market close, with Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore outlining several key areas investors should monitor.
Moore expects Nvidia to deliver its typical beat and raise pattern, projecting the company to beat estimates by $3 billion and guide $4 billion above consensus. The analyst elevated Nvidia to Morgan Stanley's top semiconductor pick in March, citing an attractive entry point for the primary generative AI beneficiary.
Morgan Stanley raised its revenue estimates for Nvidia's April quarter from $78.25 billion to $79.26 billion, with earnings per share moving from $1.69 to $1.72. For the July quarter, revenue estimates increased from $84.84 billion to $87.88 billion, with earnings per share rising from $1.93 to $2.01.
The firm also boosted its fiscal 2027 revenue forecast from $353.8 billion to $380.59 billion, with earnings per share climbing from $7.93 to $8.61. Fiscal 2028 estimates saw a more substantial increase, with revenue jumping from $452.4 billion to $587.45 billion and earnings per share rising from $10.14 to $13.11.
Moore highlighted Nvidia's path to $1 trillion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue between calendar years 2025 and 2027. After accounting for approximately $30 billion in Hopper-related products in 2025, the analyst projects $845 billion in datacenter revenue over 2026-2027, before including additional products.
The analyst noted that consensus estimates for total datacenter revenue over that period stand at $785 billion, compared to Morgan Stanley's updated forecast of $884 billion for 2026-2027.
Morgan Stanley adjusted its price target from $260 to $285, applying a 22 times multiple to its calendar 2027 earnings estimate of $12.99, bringing the target in line with the broader market.
Regarding gross margins, Moore expects some pressure from the ramp of the Rubin architecture and rising input costs, modeling 72.7% gross margins in fiscal 2028, down from current levels. The analyst pointed to Nvidia's $95 billion in purchase commitments and $21 billion in inventories as providing supply coverage for much of the next 18 months.
Moore also expects updates on Nvidia's recently launched Groq and standalone CPU products, as well as commentary on the Vera Rubin product cycle, which is tracking to schedules for a second-half ramp.
