Investing.com -- Wolfe Research is warning that global central banks could be heading toward a policy split with the Federal Reserve, with the Bank of Japan emerging as the most important variable to watch in the months ahead.

Analyst Chris Senyek said U.S. equity markets have largely ignored elevated oil prices since the Iran conflict began, but long-term bond yields and central bank expectations in futures markets have moved in lockstep with crude.

Wolfe Research attributed this divergence to U.S. energy independence, arguing that higher energy prices are likely to have a more lasting impact on economic growth in Europe and Asia given their greater reliance on energy imports.

Following a round of central bank meetings over the past month, Wolfe Research sees growing potential for policy to split between "global tightening vs. Fed holding/cutting."

The firm said the Bank of Japan is the most critical factor to monitor, noting that a 6-3 vote in favor of holding rates at its last meeting represented the largest internal divide since Governor Ueda took office in 2023.

Wolfe Research believes the rift may signal growing pressure within the Bank of Japan to raise rates, with the key question being the magnitude of any move.

If the Bank of Japan were forced to respond more aggressively to sticky inflation than futures markets currently anticipate, a sharp appreciation of the yen against the dollar could trigger another carry trade unwind.

Wolfe Research identified "tightening into transitory higher energy prices" and a carry trade unwind as its top two risks capable of derailing the current market rally.