China's April inflation data exceed forecasts on oil price surge, Barclays comments
Investing.com -- China's consumer and producer price indices rose more than expected in April, driven primarily by higher oil prices, while core inflation remained subdued, according to Barclays analysis of government data released Monday.
Consumer price inflation reached 1.2% year-over-year in April, up from 1.0% in March and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 0.9%. Producer price inflation surged to 2.8% year-over-year from 0.5% in March, significantly exceeding market expectations of 1.8% and Barclays' forecast of 1.2%.
On a month-over-month basis, producer prices jumped 1.7% in April, the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic period, up from 1.0% in March. The increase reflected delayed pass-through from earlier oil price rises, even as oil price gains moderated in April compared with March.
The producer price rebound was concentrated in upstream sectors. Raw materials prices climbed 7.1% year-over-year in April versus 1.1% in March, while mining sector prices rose 10.6% from 2.0%. Producer prices for oil and gas extraction reached 29% year-over-year, the strongest reading since late 2022. Coal mining prices turned positive for the first time since mid-2024.
Downstream sectors showed much weaker price pressures. Consumer goods prices fell 1.0% year-over-year, and manufacturing sector prices rose just 1.5%, suggesting firms struggled to pass higher input costs along the value chain.
Barclays estimated energy contributed about 0.5 percentage points to headline consumer price inflation in April, while overall inflation rose only 0.2 percentage points, implying underlying inflation excluding energy actually softened.
Several major consumer price components declined, including housing rents at negative 0.6% year-over-year versus negative 0.5% in March, automobiles at negative 1.2% versus negative 1.1%, and household goods and services at 1.4% versus 1.5%. Core consumer price inflation held at 1.1% to 1.2% in March and April, below the 1.3% average in January and February. Services inflation remained flat at 0.8% to 0.9%, slightly below its pre-conflict average of 0.9%.
