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Jefferies: 'Fertilizer Tightness Likely Persists Into 2027'

May 8, 2026 10:34 AM

Investing.com -- Nutrien reported first-quarter earnings per share of $0.51, exceeding analyst estimates by $0.02, according to Jefferies. The result came in $0.02 below consensus forecasts.

The company's performance was driven by strong results in its Retail and Nitrogen segments, which offset weaker Phosphate performance. The Retail segment contributed an additional $0.04 to earnings, while Nitrogen added $0.05. The Potash segment met expectations, but Phosphate came in $0.04 below estimates.

Global fertilizer markets remain tight, supported by robust demand for potash and nitrogen alongside constrained nitrogen and phosphate supply. The ongoing Middle East conflict has further tightened global fertilizer supply, with normalization dependent on the Strait reopening and completion of infrastructure repairs. These disruptions could extend into 2027, according to Jefferies.

Strong demand for food, feed, and biofuels continues to support higher crop production and input usage. Corteva anticipates approximately 95 million U.S. corn acres in 2026, down 4% year-over-year, and around 85 million U.S. soybean acres, up 5% year-over-year.

For 2026, Nutrien expects Retail Segment EBITDA between $1.75 billion and $1.95 billion, representing 4% growth at the midpoint. Proprietary products gross margins are projected to grow 7% to 9% year-over-year. Approximately 70% of fiscal 2026 Retail earnings are expected in the first half of the year.

The company projects potash sales volumes at 14.1 million to 14.7 million tons in 2026, nitrogen sales volumes at 9.2 million to 9.7 million tons, and phosphate sales volumes at 2.4 million to 2.6 million tons.

Nutrien continues to refine its portfolio, targeting the sale of its Brazilian soybean seed business in the second half of 2026. Strategic reviews of its phosphate and Trinidad Nitrogen operations, including potential sales, are ongoing.

The company's net debt to last twelve months EBITDA stood at 1.4 times as of the first quarter of 2026. Share repurchases are expected to total approximately $55 million per month during the second quarter, up from $50 million per month in the first quarter.

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