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Barclays Expects Home Depot, Lowe's to Beat Estimates in Q1

May 8, 2026 7:31 AM

Investing.com -- Barclays analysts said Friday they expect first-quarter results slightly above consensus for Home Depot and Lowe's, despite continued housing weakness and consumer uncertainty.

The firm said demand is gradually improving and comparisons are easing, with consensus estimates appearing reasonable and valuation attractive.

According to Barclays, progress on interest rates and housing has been slower than expected compared to three months ago and is unlikely to change meaningfully in the near term. However, demand appears stable to slightly improving, and the stocks have lagged, creating a favorable setup.

The firm's company and supplier trackers suggest trends in the first quarter improved from the fourth quarter as Home Depot and Lowe's benefited from the transition to spring, tax refunds, easing hurricane comparisons, and inflation, even as housing remained under pressure.

Most data points tracked by Barclays support comparable sales of around 1% for both companies, modestly above consensus expectations of around 0.5%.

Big ticket items appeared to moderate sequentially, and commodity inflation seems neutral, while foreign exchange is a tailwind, according to the firm.

Barclays noted that housing appears stuck, bouncing around the bottom, although its mover model shows that it's enough to support slightly positive demand growth overall, with rates key to the next move higher.

The firm said home operating costs as a percentage of consumer income are the highest since the second quarter of 2014, with spending on home products inversely correlated to this metric.

Barclays maintained its overweight rating on Home Depot and Lowe's.

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