Investing.com -- The global economy has proven more resilient than many feared in the wake of the Strait of Hormuz closure, but BCA Research is warning that the window for avoiding a recession is narrowing fast.

Chief Strategist Peter Berezin outlined seven factors that have buffered the global economy so far, while cautioning that "the risk of a recession will increase meaningfully if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into June."

The first buffer is simply timing. BCA Research noted that oil shocks historically have a lagged impact, with maximum damage to GDP growth arriving roughly four quarters after the initial shock.

Second, the global economy uses substantially less oil per unit of GDP than in past decades, though BCA cautioned that this is offset by greater supply chain interdependence.

Third, long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, limiting the pressure on central banks to hike aggressively.

Fourth, fiscal policy is providing some offset, with provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act kicking in alongside U.S. Treasury tariff refunds.

Fifth, companies have engaged in precautionary buying, echoing pandemic-era behavior.

Sixth, the AI boom has been a critical growth engine, with investment in IT hardware and software hitting a record 4.9% of GDP in the first quarter of 2026.

Seventh, oil markets remain in deep backwardation, signaling that investors expect the shock to be temporary.

BCA Research said it is currently neutral on global equities, but warned it "will adopt a more defensive posture" if the oil shock drags on.