Investing.com -- US stocks declined on Monday as investors responded to a 6% jump in front-month Brent oil prices, while the Strait of Hormuz continued to restrict crude flows. The market movement came alongside positive economic data, with March factory orders climbing 1.5% and corporate earnings exceeding expectations.

Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz fell to just 4% of normal levels, according to Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Grigsby. Front-month Brent crude traded nearly $25 per barrel above Goldman's fourth-quarter 2026 forecast of $90 per barrel, as efforts to resolve the supply bottleneck remained unsuccessful.

Despite elevated energy prices, the ISM manufacturing sentiment index reached 52.7, up from 52.4 on March 2 before the conflict began. Goldman's second-quarter 2026 GDP growth tracker held steady at 1.7% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis.

First-quarter 2026 earnings season showed strength, with nearly two-thirds of companies reporting results that surpassed expectations. Goldman analyst Ben Snider noted earnings per share growth exceeded a high bar of forecasts.

The current supply-driven inflation differs from the demand-led price increases seen during the pandemic recovery period. Goldman compared the situation to the 1973 oil embargo, though acknowledged significant differences in today's global energy market structure.

Higher fuel costs could reduce consumer spending on discretionary items such as dining out and travel, while also raising prices for goods dependent on oil-based inputs like plastics and freight.

Goldman analyst Manuel Abecasis said artificial intelligence is contributing to near-term inflation through memory component shortages affecting smartphones and personal computers, higher software prices, and increased electricity costs from datacenter demand. The firm expects AI-related productivity gains to eventually prove disinflationary once more widespread.