Investing.com -- The Iran war has so far had a limited visible impact on the U.S. economy, but Wolfe Research warns the shock is building beneath the surface, masked by a set of temporary but powerful offsets.

Analyst Stephanie Roth said consumer spending through April remains solid, first-quarter GDP was strong, and early signs point to improving hiring trends. She attributes this resilience primarily to fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill and the ongoing AI capital expenditure boom.

On the fiscal side, Wolfe estimates the bill has delivered roughly $188 billion in total consumer stimulus, including approximately $35 billion in tax refund checks, more than offsetting the estimated $20 billion to $30 billion consumer burden from higher gasoline prices to date.

On the investment side, Wolfe estimates domestic AI-related capital expenditure is running at roughly $582 billion annualized, or 1.8% of GDP, and was responsible for nearly a quarter of nominal GDP growth in the first quarter.

Including AI-related imports, total AI investment reaches an estimated $770 billion annualized.

"While the impact from the war and ~$100 WTI hasn't cracked the economy yet, that doesn't mean the shock isn't building," Roth wrote.

Wolfe identified three risks that could unwind the current resilience. These include a further sustained crude price increase of $30 to $35, pushing gasoline above $5 per gallon, a slowdown in AI investment, and tighter financial conditions.

"It would likely take another sustained ~$30–35 increase in crude, pushing gasoline prices above $5, to begin to do more material damage," Roth wrote.