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Oppenheimer lifts Airbnb rating, sees 'organic revenue levers materializing

May 4, 2026 10:45 AM

Investing.com -- Oppenheimer upgraded Airbnb to Outperform from Perform and established a $180 price target on the stock in a note on Monday, arguing that a set of product initiatives and demand tailwinds are not fully reflected in current Street estimates.

Analyst Jed Kelly said the upgrade is driven by growing conviction that Airbnb's push into hotels, its reserve now, pay later offering and AI-powered search will generate durable revenue acceleration.

Kelly is particularly constructive on the hotels segment, citing Manhattan as a notable opportunity where supply remains roughly 3 million nights below 2019 levels due to tighter regulation.

"We estimate hotels could add ~3pts to nights with minimal uplift while offering massive potential if conversion/awareness approaches ~30–50% of scaled OTAs," Kelly wrote.

Oppenheimer also flagged Airbnb as better positioned than traditional online travel agencies to absorb travel-corridor disruptions stemming from oil supply shocks, given its more flexible and distributed inventory.

The firm additionally pointed to World Cup demand as a near-term tailwind, with rentals in host cities already pacing above 2025 levels.

On estimates, Oppenheimer raised its 2027 nights forecast by 2% to 10% year-over-year growth, with 2027 revenue and EBITDA estimates running 3% and 1% above consensus, respectively.

Kelly said the valuation offers a favorable risk-reward profile. "Trading at 14x '27E EBITDA, we see limited downside if initiatives don't scale," he wrote.

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