Investing.com -- Melius Research warned that a disruption at the Strait of Hormuz would severely impact global jet fuel supply, with limited options to offset potential shortages.

Of the 20 to 21 million barrels per day that historically transit the strait, approximately 3 million barrels per day consists of refined products, according to Melius Research. Aviation fuel represents the most constrained flow, as crude oil has bypass options while jet fuel has almost none.

Jet fuel must be refined from specific feedstocks at specific units and delivered into hub networks including Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, Singapore, and the Gulf, where inventory cover sits below seasonal norms.

Feedstock quality cannot be easily substituted. Jet A-1 specifications are fixed by physics and aircraft engine requirements. European Union refiners running 20% to 25% Arab Light cannot switch to West African or U.S. light sweet crude without hardware modifications, Melius noted.

Planned refinery turnarounds run 2 to 6 weeks, while cold restart of a fully idled refinery runs 4 to 12 weeks. The current inventory deficit has little buffer, bypass, or spare capacity waiting to be activated.

The EU is actively assessing whether to import Jet A, the U.S. specification fuel, as an emergency backstop. This workaround would require regulatory changes and is not yet operational.

Aggregate jet stocks sit approximately 7 million barrels below the five-year seasonal average. The ARA hub is at a six-year low. The Middle East excluding Iran sits at approximately 18 days of coverage, the tightest in the tracked universe and the market most directly in the path of any disruption.

Europe is falling below its five-year average and is structurally short on refining capacity to self-correct. Strategic petroleum reserves hold crude, not refined products, making the standard policy response to tight oil markets structurally mismatched.

OECD Americas recently touched a multi-year high, but this product serves a domestic market and does not reflect barrels positioned for export. OECD Europe has spent nearly the entire period since 2021 below its five-year average.

Asia is now import-dependent, with regional refineries relying on the Gulf for roughly half of their crude feedstock. China imposed export restrictions to protect domestic supply but is poised to resume exports in May. A Chinese re-entry would ease acute shortages in Southeast Asia but does little for Europe directly and does not address the ARA deficit.