Investing.com -- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 28 represents the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market, removing more than 15% of global supply, yet Brent crude has risen only modestly to the $90–$100 range. Yardeni Research lays out why.

The firm identified six factors tempering what many analysts had expected to be a far more severe price spike, with some forecasts calling for $150 to $200 per barrel.

First, bypass infrastructure has helped. Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. have ramped pipeline capacity, together moving roughly 7 million barrels per day compared to the 17–20 million that previously transited the Strait.

Second, emergency supply from Iranian and Russian oil waivers, IEA strategic reserve releases and Chinese stockpile resales have further cushioned the market.

Third, Yardeni states that the global price is only half the story. “While the benchmark Brent crude oil price has held near $100 a barrel, that’s not representative of oil prices globally,” the firm wrote.

“Asia-delivered Dubai crude has spiked as high as $260 per barrel. Local buyers across Asia are paying premiums.”

Next, Yardeni states that demand destruction is accelerating, with the IEA now projecting global oil demand will contract by 80,000 barrels per day in 2026.

Fifth, the global economy is said to be considerably less energy-intensive than during the 1970s shocks.

Finally, oil futures trading in steep backwardation signals markets expect a temporary, not permanent, disruption.

"We anticipate that a barrel of Brent crude oil will trade in the $85–$100 range for the remainder of the year, which is above pre-conflict levels," Yardeni wrote.

The firm added that rate hikes are off the table as long as long-term inflation expectations stay anchored and the risk of a wage-price spiral remains low.