Wolfe Research Starts Rubrik Inc (RBRK) at Outperform
Wolfe Research analyst Patrick O\'Neill initiates coverage on Rubrik Inc (NYSE: RBRK) with a Outperform rating and a price target of $70.00.
The analyst comments "The data backup and recovery market goes way back, like floppy disks, physical tapes and CDs way back. Those days are long gone as a once slow-paced, uninteresting market has evolved behind the introduction of the internet and cloudbased architectures and SaaS applications that brought along the unintended consequences of a rapidly rising cyber threat landscape, leaving behind the concepts of traditional data backup and recovery, and introducing the need for data and cyber resilience, which is only amplified by the rise of AI. Enter Rubrik, a cloud-native resiliency platform built with Zero Trust principles ingrained in its DNA, which today finds itself at the intersection of data and security, two of the most important categories of software with the rise of AI today. This underpins our confidence in Rubrik's ability to maintain 30%+ Subscription ARR growth this year and durable high-20%+ growth in out years, even before factoring in major contributions from meaningful AI tailwinds. Specifically, for this year, we expect new Identity Security offerings to again be a meaningful contributor to growth after what we estimate was a high-$30M contribution to NNARR last year, a number that we see at least doubling in FY27. In the core business, we model consistent NNARR growth in the high-single-digit range, which drives our upside estimates, calling for Sub ARR growth of ~32% Y/Y (vs. guidance for ~25%). As AI deployments move out of the early innings, we see multiple avenues for Rubrik to benefit from data volume growth acceleration to a heightened threat landscape, driving the need for cyber resiliency as enterprises look to secure, govern, and, most importantly and differentiated for Rubrik, hit rewind when rogue agents create chaos. Rubrik clearly belongs in the AI winners category (alongside names like DDOG, SNOW, CRWD, NET, and others) and carry the premium valuation that comes with it. We initiate with an Outperform rating and a $70 PT."
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Shares of Rubrik Inc closed at $53.18 yesterday.
