William Blair: 'we continue to view BridgeBio as a core smidcap biotech holding'
William Blair analyst John Boyle reiterated an Outperform rating on BridgeBio Pharma (NASDAQ: BBIO).
The analyst comments "Our take: Filings indicate that Pfizer (PFE $26.75) has dismissed its case against all three generic tafamidis filers and Pfizer has announced it has settled with all generic filers to extend the effective U.S. patent expiry date for Vyndamax to June 1, 2031, subject to the outcome of other litigation. Shares of BridgeBio are trading down slightly on the news (-1% to -2%) in what investors are viewing as a mixed outcome for BridgeBio here (bull case was generic tafamidis entry in 2033 to 2035), despite being a clearing event and removing a key overhang on the story. We have updated our model to account for generic tafamidis entry in mid-2031. Assuming what would be a worst-case scenario for BridgeBio, where Attruby only retains all its patients at the time of a generic entry and gains no new ones, with generic entry in mid-2031, we see a sum-of-the-parts fair value for BridgeBio of $93.49 (about 28% upside from the intraday price of $73.29) with $46.49 in value attributed to the Attruby opportunity. We note, however, that we believe the payer market is more resilient to a generic entry than commonly perceived (discussed in the full note) and accordingly believe that growth of Attruby could continue despite generic entry, and that our updated estimates are conservative. Investors are focused on the stabilizer therapy background subgroup in the ongoing CARDIO-TTRansform study of eplontersen Ionis’s (IONS $72.09; Outperform)/AstraZeneca’s (AZN $187.24) eplontersen ahead of a second half 2026 readout. Pfizer’s mid-2031 settlement will likely keep the TTR-CM market in a monotherapy setting due to payer coverage restrictions, in our view; however, this is earlier than our original assumptions of 2033 to 2035 generic tafamidis entry. With clarity toward a key overhang on BridgeBio shares in the tafamidis litigation, the top line set to expand significantly over the next 18 months with three additional launches to diversify the portfolio beyond Attruby, and an anticipated transition to cash flow positivity and GAAP profitability in late 2027, we continue to view BridgeBio as a core smidcap biotech holding and reiterate our Outperform rating."
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Shares of BridgeBio Pharma closed at $74.52 yesterday.
