Investing.com -- Jet fuel loadings and volumes bound for Northwest Europe have dropped to a record low of less than 200,000 barrels per day and 2 million barrels per day, according to Morgan Stanley. Arrivals remain subdued but better than anticipated.

Most European Union refiners are operating at maximum jet fuel production capacity. Incremental imports from Africa and the United States, ranging from 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day, fall short of the approximately 300,000 barrels per day of Middle East supply to the EU and UK.

March saw a peak in jet arrivals, likely driven by US inflows, providing temporary supply relief to the EU. However, crack spreads are expected to remain elevated.

Low-cost carriers and flag carriers have made varied capacity revisions for the second quarter of 2026. Ryanair capacity remains flat, while Wizz Air and Tui have reduced capacity by 6% and 3% respectively compared to eight weeks ago. Low-cost carrier capacity is still up 8% year-over-year in the second quarter and 9% in the third quarter of 2026.

Lufthansa has been the most aggressive in managing capacity, cutting 2.5% in the second quarter of 2026 with reductions in the Middle East, Germany, and France compared to eight weeks ago.