Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley's Consumer Staples Commodity Cost Index fell 5% year-over-year through April 17, while rising 3% month-over-month compared to March.

On a year-over-year basis, commodity prices increased for ethylene, up 99%, propylene, up 84%, and oil, up 61%. Prices for eggs, cocoa, coffee, and sugar remained below prior year levels.

Month-over-month price increases were led by propylene, up 51%, ethylene, up 50%, and HDPE/PET/LDPE, up 34%. Europe natural gas fell 20%, US natural gas declined 9%, and robusta coffee dropped 7% on a monthly basis.

The index sits approximately 40% above pre-Covid averages from January 5, 2010.

Morgan Stanley estimates cost pressures at 1% year-over-year in 2026 across the staples sector if spot prices remain at current levels. The estimate is 1% excluding chocolate companies.

Chocolate faces a 7% headwind in the first half of 2026 and an 8% tailwind in the second half due to cocoa price volatility.

For household and personal care products, the cost tracker indicates 2% year-over-year cost pressures for 2026, compared to flat when last published in mid-March. The second half of 2026 faces a 6% headwind, up from a 2% headwind, due to price volatility in packaging materials and oil.

Food and beverage companies face an estimated 1% headwind in 2026.