Investing.com -- An oil price shock stemming from the Middle East conflict could reshape the U.S. discretionary retail landscape, but Barclays says off-price retailers are best positioned to weather the storm while traditional apparel names face the greatest pressure.

Analyst Adrienne Yih told investors in a note on Thursday that consumer spending has held up well so far, with inventory levels clean, promotions controlled and tax refunds supporting demand.

However, the firm warns that oil shocks "can severely damage retail profitability as their impact is felt throughout the P&L, not only from consumer demand destruction, but also from pressure on input costs and operating costs."

Barclays identifies TJX (NYSE: TJX), Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) and Burlington (NASDAQ: BURL) as the clearest defensive plays, arguing that off-price retail "most cleanly fits this profile and offers investors discretionary exposure while managing volatility and drawdown risk."

Yih describes oil shocks as "a de facto regressive tax" that disproportionately pressures lower- and middle-income consumers, driving trade-down behavior that structurally benefits off-price models.

Recurring-consumption retailers such as Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA) and National Vision (NASDAQ: EYE) also feature among the more resilient names, as consumers are effectively compelled to replenish those categories regardless of macro conditions.

On the losing side, Barclays flags traditional apparel as particularly vulnerable, citing low barriers to entry, limited brand loyalty and easy substitutes.

"Apparel has less pricing power," Yih writes, whereas accessories and footwear companies with strong brand equity tend to be stickier in tougher times.

Barclays frames consumer cyclicals as "first out, first in" – the first sector to exit in a slowdown but also the first to recover, suggesting the duration of the Middle East conflict will be the key variable for retail investors to monitor.