Analysts flag Capex and slower AI rollout as key risks for Tesla
Investing.com -- Wall Street analysts struck a cautious tone following Tesla's first-quarter earnings call, with stronger-than-expected margins overshadowed by rising capital expenditure and a more gradual autonomous vehicle rollout than investors had hoped for.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney maintained a Neutral rating and $375 price target on Tesla, acknowledging margin progress and growing FSD subscription rates, up 51% year-over-year, but warned that the pace of robotaxi deployments "could be measured in the near-term" and that unsupervised FSD release to consumers may not arrive until late 2026.
Delaney estimates free cash flow will be negative in both 2026 and 2027, given the elevated cost of investment, turning positive only in 2028.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy reiterated an Equal Weight rating and $360 target, framing the quarter as less about the results themselves and more about what lies ahead, calling this "Tesla's most consequential period of investment ever."
He flagged that proof points are still needed on robotaxi scaling and the upcoming Optimus start of production, while noting that outdated hardware could weigh on FSD take rates.
Morgan Stanley's Andrew Percoco, who reiterated an Equal Weight rating and $415 target, acknowledged that robotaxi miles driven have more than doubled since December but said "near-term upside is likely capped" as key physical AI programs progress more slowly than investor expectations while capex and cash burn increase.
Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois was incrementally more positive, noting encouraging demand commentary with the order backlog at its highest in two years, and highlighting Optimus production targeted to begin in July or August as a key watch point.
