Why equities are holding up better than in the 2022 energy crisis
Investing.com -- Recent gains across equity markets have drawn comparisons to the brief recovery that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a rally that gave way to further declines. But Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen argues those comparisons are misplaced.
"The resilience we've seen across multiple asset classes makes more sense than it might first appear, and isn't just a sign of complacency," Allen wrote, pointing to four key differences between today's energy shock and the one that rattled markets three years ago.
“First, to state the obvious, oil and gas prices are lower today than back then. That applies to both front-end prices and expectations,” the analyst stated.
He explained that at a comparable point, one month into the Ukraine conflict, Brent futures were pricing an extended shock, with six-month contracts above $100 per barrel. Today, they sit below $80 per barrel.
Second, the impact of any price spike is smaller given the cumulative inflation of roughly 10% since 2022 and continued declines in energy intensity.
Third, inflation is starting from a lower base, meaning central banks are not facing the same pressure to tighten aggressively.
Fourth, the macro data has remained expansionary on both sides of the Atlantic, a contrast to past oil shocks, including the 1973 crisis and the Gulf War in 1990, when economic deterioration was immediate.
Deutsche Bank said the 2022 downturn deepened because it coincided with a severe energy shock, elevated inflation and the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in a generation.
"Today, we are not meeting those severity thresholds," Allen wrote.
The analyst also highlighted that the S&P 500 has posted three consecutive weeks of gains above 3%, only the third such occurrence since World War II, Deutsche Bank noted.
