Alcoa (NYSE: AA) reported Q1 EPS of $1.40, $0.07 worse than the analyst estimate of $1.47. Revenue for the quarter came in at $3.19 billion versus the consensus estimate of $3.3 billion.

2026 Outlook

The Company does not provide reconciliations of the forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Net Income, including transformation, intersegment eliminations and other corporate Adjusted EBITDA; operational tax expense; and other expense; each excluding special items, to the most directly comparable forward-looking GAAP financial measures because it is impractical to forecast certain special items, such as restructuring charges and mark-to-market contracts, without unreasonable efforts due to the variability and complexity associated with predicting the occurrence and financial impact of such special items. For the same reasons, the Company is unable to address the probable significance of the unavailable information, which could be material to future results.

Alcoa expects 2026 total Alumina segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from its prior projection, ranging between 9.7 to 9.9 million metric tons, and between 11.8 and 12.0 million metric tons, respectively. The difference between production and shipments reflects trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to fulfill customer contracts.

Alcoa expects 2026 total Aluminum segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from its prior projection, ranging between 2.4 and 2.6 million metric tons, and between 2.6 and 2.8 million metric tons, respectively.

Within the second quarter 2026 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects sequential unfavorable impacts of approximately $15 million due to lower price and volumes from bauxite offtake agreements and higher energy prices, primarily diesel, due to the Middle East conflict.

For the second quarter 2026 Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA, Alcoa expects sequential favorable impacts of approximately $55 million due to inventory repositioning actions taken in the first quarter 2026, higher shipments and product premiums, and lower production costs due to the completion of the San Ciprián smelter restart, partially offset by seasonally lower third-party energy sales. Based on recent higher LME and Midwest premium pricing and expected higher shipments, Section 232 tariff costs on U.S. imports of aluminum from Canada are expected to increase by approximately $35 million sequentially. Alumina costs in the Aluminum segment are expected to be favorable by approximately $20 million sequentially.

Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects second quarter 2026 operational tax expense to approximate $110 million to $120 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.

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