Investing.com -- Barclays is maintaining its call for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady until September, after minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting revealed growing unease about inflation while stopping short of a decisively hawkish shift.

Analyst Marc Giannoni said the March 17-18 FOMC minutes pointed to "participants' increased concerns about elevated inflation and upside inflation risks, amid the surge in energy prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East."

However, Giannoni noted that the vast majority of participants also viewed employment risks as skewed to the downside, tempering the hawkish tone.

While some participants pushed for two-sided guidance, leaving open the possibility of rate hikes, Barclays said the overall message remained consistent with eventual easing.

"Many remained of the view that rates should be lowered, in time, if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations," Giannoni wrote.

Barclays retained its baseline forecast of a 25 basis point cut in September 2026, followed by a second cut in March 2027, which the firm said is consistent with the median projections in the Fed's dot plot.

The bank expects core inflation to moderate on a month-on-month basis after April, assuming a partial reversal of the recent oil price surge, and anticipates real consumer spending to slow in the second half of the year.

Giannoni flagged risks as skewed toward delayed cuts, warning that if inflation proves stronger or more persistent than expected, the Fed would likely push back its easing timeline. A sudden rise in unemployment, however, could prompt a faster and more aggressive cutting cycle.