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US growth and inflation has become less sensitive to oil shocks, analysts say

April 7, 2026 1:37 PM

Investing.com -- Analysts at Bank of America said in a research report that the U.S. economy’s growth and inflation have become less sensitive to oil shocks than in previous years.

The note comes at a time when major economies, especially the U.S., have been reeling from rising gas prices and inflationary pressures that have become a major concern for policymakers. The rise in oil prices forced the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged. Several Federal Reserve officials have flagged growing concerns around inflation in the world’s largest economy.

Since the 1970s, the global economy's reliance on oil has plummeted. Today, it takes only about one-third as much oil as in the early 1970s to produce the same amount of GDP. This declining dependence is a primary driver behind the world's improved ability to weather supply disruptions, the report added.

According to analysts, the U.S. has seen the greatest improvement in resilience. In the 1970s, a 10% spike in oil prices typically led to a 90-basis-point (bp) increase in inflation. Today, that same shock triggers only an estimated 25 bp increase.

Despite global improvements, the report warned that Europe remains roughly twice as sensitive to oil shocks as the U.S. Analysts estimated that a 10% oil price hike would add 40bp to Eurozone inflation and drag growth down by more than 10bp.

The heightened sensitivity is attributed to a larger share of energy in European consumer spending (9-10% vs. 6-7% in the U.S.) and the region's continued status as a net energy importer. The research findings are also reflected in BofA’s latest global economic forecasts, which account for a 40% rise in oil prices following the outbreak of war. While the U.S. growth forecast was lowered by 30bp due to the conflict, the Eurozone saw a steeper 60bp cut to growth alongside a 160bp hike in inflation expectations, according to the report.

“The shift towards a lower sensitivity to oil is nonetheless reassuring,” the report said, noting that while the current conflict presents challenges, the global economy is far better equipped to handle them than during the crises of the past.

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