Investing.com -- Not all oil services companies stand to benefit from the Middle East conflict, JPMorgan analysts say, as the Iran war disrupts the upstream spending picture in ways that are cutting differently across the sector.

SLB (NYSE: SLB) set the tone early by pre-announcing a first-quarter earnings per share shortfall of $0.06 to $0.09, having suspended all personnel movement into the conflict zone and scaled back its regional footprint.

Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes (NYSE: BKR) is seeing a similar impact, with JPMorgan estimating around $275 million in monthly Middle East revenue exposure that was impacted in March, resulting in an estimated $60 million revenue hit to its oilfield services and equipment segment for the quarter, with decremental margins likely running in the 50-60% range.

The company booked a 1.21 gigawatt generator order for Crusoe’s AI data center infrastructure and a 250 megawatt award from Twenty20 Energy, reinforcing its "strengthening leverage to distributed power solutions," the analysts said. They said Baker Hughes’ full-year industrial and energy technology inbound order guide of $15.1 billion remains intact.

Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) also flagged headwinds in Iraq and a full shutdown of Qatar’s offshore operations, though the analysts said its first-quarter guidance "appears intact, a function of what we view as a conservatively set bar heading into the year."

While JPMorgan trimmed its second-half estimates for Halliburton on the conflict overhang, the company is “actively pursuing pricing recovery through dedicated agreement openers,” the analysts noted.

North American (NAM) operations, while insulated from direct exposure, are not immune. Large public and private exploration and production operators alike have adopted a wait-and-see approach as the conflict backdrop continues to evolve, with little appetite to lean into incremental activity.

Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP) is seeing the disruption surface through elevated air freight costs, logistics friction, and a capex-to-opex mix shift from higher reactivation expenses in its international segment, pushing profitability below the low end of its original gross margin guide.

“That said, HP sees the longer-term international growth outlook as more constructive postconflict, as regional operators seek to backfill supply shortfalls, a sentiment also echoed by BKR management,” the analysts added.

On the other hand, JPMorgan expects a largely in-line quarterly print for Flowco, citing its pure-play U.S. onshore positioning, but the company flagged that one of its two early-stage international partnerships was in the affected region.

Overall, the analysts said they expect first-quarter results to take a backseat to forward guidance, with "the trajectory of the Middle East conflict, the pace of NAM pricing recovery, and the monetization pathway for distributed power assets representing the key catalysts for the balance of 2026."