Bernstein SocGen Reiterates Outperform Rating on Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Bernstein SocGen Group analyst David Vernon reiterated an Outperform rating and $81.00 price target on Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL).
The analyst commented: "Updating estimates and lowering FY26 on fuel; We update our DAL estimates to reflect the latest company guidance update from March, new fuel price assumptions, and stronger MRO top line performance. Our out-year estimates, $81 PT, and Outperform rating are all unchanged, as the solid long-term outlook remains intact and may get stronger as the Iran conflict squeezes out capacity.
What changed in our model / where we stand vs. consensus. We trim 1Q26 capacity and have CASM-ex a bit worse than guide midpoint (Exhibit 2) as TSA mayhem / LGA incident likely worsened things a bit since DAL’s last update. Fuel prices are also creating downside to our 1H26 numbers vs. the street’s (Exhibit 4, Exhibit 5). A 1H26 likely weaker than we previously anticipated weighs on our unchanged 2H26 outlook (which includes moderating fuel prices vs. 1H), and results in our FY26 estimate coming down by 7%. At $6.05, we now sit below the Jan. guide of $6.50-$7.50, which wasn’t reiterated at the March conference and seems likely to shift down (Exhibit 3). Nonetheless, we’re still ahead of the street’s $5.94 (+2%) with a stronger 2H outlook, and ~6% ahead of consensus in FY27."
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Shares of Delta Air Lines closed at $66.78 yesterday.
