Assembly Biosciences (ASMB) PT Raised to $43 at Guggenheim
Guggenheim analyst Vamil Divan raised the price target on Assembly Biosciences (NASDAQ: ASMB) to $43.00 (from $39.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.
The analyst commented: "We had the chance to catch up with Assembly management recently after the company released their FY 2025 update. Following the conversation, we are updating our Assembly model to reflect the earlier Gilead (GILD) opt-in and our expectations for ASMB to co-opt-in, our increased enthusiasm for ABI-5366 and ABI-1179 now that they have both demonstrated striking over 90% reductions in viral shedding and genital lesions, and the company's 4Q 2025 results. With genital herpes, Assembly expects its opt-in decision by mid-2026 following receipt of Gilead's development plan and budget, with the Assembly team anticipating Gilead will initiate a Phase 2 trial in 2026. With two promising once-weekly oral treatment options for recurrent genital herpes with the potential to demonstrate superior efficacy vs. valacyclovir SOC, we now estimate genital herpes risk-adjusted sales growing to >$1B, with 40% US profit share and royalties ex-US for Assembly. Beyond genital herpes, following interim Phase 1a data for ABI-6250 (HDV) the company expects to initiate a Phase 2 study in 4Q, while management also expects potential ABI-7272 (NNPI) entry into the clinic in early 2027 and the potential announcement of additional discovery programs later in 2026. With ABI-4334 for HBV, while GILD declined to exercise its option we had not factored subsequent development in our model. Net-net, our price target increases to $43 (from $39), or an equity value of ~$900M on a fully diluted basis assuming full exercise of warrants. We continue to see ASMB as a Top Pick and reiterate our BUY rating."