This European oil major stands out as best play despite sector risks: BofA
Investing.com -- Bank of America reiterated its top pick among European oil majors in a note on Thursday, arguing the French energy company offers compelling free cash flow yields even as first-quarter results are expected to underwhelm across the sector.
TotalEnergies is the stock in question.
BofA analyst Christopher Kuplent cautioned investors against reading too much into the current elevated commodity price environment when assessing first-quarter earnings.
Despite a roughly 40% spike in Brent crude and a 150% surge in European refining margins during March, the bank expects working capital builds to push net debt higher across Europe's major oil companies, squeezing headroom for share buybacks.
"We believe 1Q26 results will bear few hallmarks of today's elevated commodity price environment," Kuplent wrote.
Rather than chasing the sector's commodity-driven upside, BofA argued that TotalEnergies stands out on a fundamental basis.
The bank calculates TotalEnergies offers free cash flow yields of 14% and 13% in 2026 and 2027 at current strip prices, and a 12% mid-cycle FCF yield in 2028 even if Brent oil prices retreat to $60 per barrel, a level BofA described as underpinning organic growth across oil, gas and power.
BofA also flagged near-term catalysts, expecting TotalEnergies to announce 5% dividend per share growth alongside first-quarter results, with buybacks also expected to increase sequentially.
Kuplent described it as "one of the only Big Oils" likely to raise payouts alongside first-quarter earnings.
