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Piper on Southeast banks: 'Who has room to buy more shares?"

April 1, 2026 7:01 AM

Piper Sandler analyst Stephen Scouten commented: "Who Has Been Active, and Who Has Room to Buy More Shares? - Given that the current operating environment for bank remains fairly constructive, this could be one of the few times when banks are able to take advantage of a pullback to buy back stock. Often times, when bank stocks fall there is either less capital available or more industry-specific risks that keep banks on the sidelines. We were pleased to see several banks be active in the early part of 1Q26 and could see heightened activity through qtr end when banks report in mid-late April. The KRE has traded down ~9.5% since 2/20/26 (when we see this downdraft as having started) and we are taking another look at our coverage in light of this pullback, fwd repurchase possibilities, and attractive profitability profiles. Most Active Repurchasers - AMTB, FCNCA, HWC, SSB, and UCB stand out as the most active repurchasers. OW-rated SSB had one of the most active repurchases in early 1Q26 - buying back over 1% of their outstanding stock, while the shares have underperformed ~3% since 2/20/26, a dynamic that bodes well for share appreciation through 2027. OW-rated AMTB is also an interesting name, with the shares now trading at just under TBVPS, further repurchases could aide the optics and future EPS. OW-Rated Names with Ample Capacity - Several OW-rated names stand out as having the potential to be much more active if this macro-driven pullback in bank stock persists. We highlight HOMB, OBK, and OZK as three names with ample excess capital, meaningful authorizations, and a recent appetite for repurchases. Active Share Repurchase Plans Could be a Positive Catalyst in 1Q26 Earnings Season - In all likelihood we will need to see resolutions to outstanding macro concerns in order to return to the recent February highs. For now, it seems that the Iran conflict will dominate headlines and drive volatility, while concerns around private credit and the impact of AI remain indiscernible near term. That said, we think the banks could display continued confidence to the market with active share repurchase activity in the midst of this pullback - signaling to investors the buying opportunity that many bank management teams view their shares as today."

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