IMF: US-Israel war with Iran means "higher prices and slower growth"
Investing.com - The International Monetary Fund warned Monday that the US-Israeli war against Iran threatens a "global, yet asymmetric" shock, dimming the outlook for economies recovering from previous crises.
Countries in Africa and Asia that are heavily dependent on oil imports are already finding it increasingly hard to access needed supplies, "even at inflated prices," the IMF said in a blog post published Monday.
"All roads lead to higher prices and slower growth," the IMF said. The fund added that the ultimate impact on supply chains and infrastructure will depend on whether the conflict proves short or long, noting "the world may settle somewhere in between — tensions linger, energy stays costly, and inflation proves hard to tame — with ongoing uncertainty and geopolitical risk."
Brent crude surged toward $115 a barrel in Monday trading, on track for a record monthly increase, as US troops arrive in the region. President Donald Trump repeated his threats to destroy Iranian energy assets if the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened soon.
Beyond energy disruption, higher food and fertilizer prices are affecting countries from the Middle East to Latin America, with low-income economies at risk of food insecurity, the IMF warned. The interruption of crop-nutrient supplies from the Gulf comes as planting season begins in the northern hemisphere, threatening harvests through the year.
"People in low‑income countries are most at risk when food prices rise because it accounts for about 36% of their consumption on average, compared with 20% in emerging market-economies and 9% in advanced economies," the IMF said in its post, written by economists including Tobias Adrian and Jihad Azour.
"That makes any spike in fertilizer and food prices not just an economic problem but a socio-political one, especially where fiscal resources to cushion the blow are limited," the fund said.
The IMF will release a detailed report on the global economic outlook next month, when finance chiefs and central bank governors gather in Washington for the IMF-World Bank spring meetings.
The war, which is entering its second month, began on February 28 when the US and Israel jointly attacked facilities across Iran. The country has declared the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following the conflict's onset.
