KeyBanc Shares 2026 Shoptalk Tidbits

The analyst commented: "KBCM’s Hardlines/Broadlines and Softlines/Internet Retail teams attended the 2026 Shoptalk conference in Las Vegas, which had a heavy focus on AI. Given this theme, we also conducted a systematic review of AI from a consumer perspective across our coverage. Today, AI shopping differentiation is still early, and the landscape is changing rapidly, but we believe businesses with size and overall differentiation will be most successful. Coming out of the event, we are most positive on the AI/digital outlook for WMT, AMZN (co-covered with Internet analyst Justin Patterson), WSM, W, BOBS, HD, LOW, ETSY, REAL, and RVLV.

Shoptalk Background. Founded in 2015, the annual Shoptalk conference in Las Vegas is focused on consumer, retail, and shopping. Speakers in 2026 included Wayfair’s CEO & Co-Chair, Niraj Shah; Lowe’s VP of Customer Marketing & Loyalty, Amanda Bailey; Home Depot’s Head of Industry at Orange Apron Media, Taryn Dominie; Etsy’s Chief Product & Technology Officer, Rafe Colburn; Crocs Chief Marketing Officer, Carly Gomez; and OpenAI’s Chairman, Bret Taylor.

Key Takeaways. We came away from Shoptalk 2026 incrementally positive on the opportunity for AI, with the belief that AI could be “more revolutionary than evolutionary,” a theme that seemed to resonate at the show. While still early, in 2025, it was estimated that 0.4% of U.S. e-commerce sales were driven by AI platforms. Ultimately, we believe AI-enabled search can rise to ~10% of e-commerce in 2029. The landscape is changing very rapidly, with OpenAI’s ChatGPT eliminating instant checkout. Retailers we have spoken with are positive on this change as it is likely to simplify the experience and reduce friction. In our experience, Gemini also continues to improve as a shopping tool.  Other Key Themes. Other key themes include: 1) GLP-1s also appear to be in the early innings of changing shopping behaviors across many categories; 2) resale holds significant growth potential; and 3) investment in e-commerce automation will likely accelerate.  KBCM AI Report Card. Using the report card analogy, it is still very early, as if the semester just started. Nonetheless, we believe AI will have a meaningful impact on the digital shopping experience. We believe size/scale and brand differentiation will be most critical over time.

Key Takeaways from the AI Report Card:

 The top of the funnel, with the evolution of AI-based search, is evolving rapidly (see Figure 1).  Last week, OpenAI announced the elimination of ChatGPT’s instant checkout. In our discussions with retailers, they believe this can speed up adoption and reduce friction for customers shopping via ChatGPT.  Our observations regarding Google’s Gemini are that it continues to evolve quickly and offer an improving and easy customer shopping experience.  Today, our shopping checks indicate little differentiation between brands once within ChatGPT. AMZN and ChatGPT do not have a formal partnership today. In our searches, AMZN does not come up as regularly, and links to AMZN to buy the product are not as readily available. This is in contrast to many other retailers such as WMT, TGT, HD, and LOW, where recommendations, pictures, and links to the retailer sites are all displayed. Additionally, while the case is still ongoing, a federal judge ruled that Perplexity’s AI cannot access AMZN’s password-protected systems (like Prime accounts) using its agent. However, the appeals court temporarily lifted this ban while it reviews the case, so Perplexity’s AI can continue accessing AMZN accounts to help consumers shop.  Numerous retailers offer AI assistants within their website (including AMZN, WMT, HD, LOW, WSM, W, BOBS, CROX, NKE, and RVLV). Overall, we find these AI assistants to be helpful, though there are additional features (like adding frequently purchased items to a cart) that we would like to be included. Interestingly, we do see these AI assistants adding potential reputational risk should they issue opinions or views not related to the shopping experience.  As we referenced earlier, the landscape is changing rapidly, and we believe key AI takeaways are likely to be different in six and 12 months. Nonetheless, we see these elements of the shopping experience becoming increasingly important into the future."