Benchmark Reiterates Buy Rating on National CineMedia (NCMI) Ahead of Q1 Results
Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey reiterated a Buy rating and $6.00 price target on National CineMedia (NASDAQ: NCMI).
The analyst commented, "We are holding our 1Q expectations in place and believe attendance likely tracked in line with management expectations, though the cadence of attendance may have been uneven, with softer trends through February into mid-March followed by a strong finish driven by Project Hail Mary. As a result, we expect the company to report revenue and AEBITDA below the midpoint of guidance but within the range and above our prior estimates. Looking ahead, we are incrementally more constructive on 2Q and are raising our estimates, as the clear strength of Super Mario Galaxy Movie is already driving increased enthusiasm among media buyers despite April seasonality. Unlike last year, where Minecraft emerged as a surprise, we believe NCM is better positioned to capitalize on a more visible and predictable slate, supporting improved Y/Y growth. We are also seeing strong interest around The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Mandalorian and Grogu, and Toy Story 5, with Devil Wears Prada in particular likely to resonate with beauty and CPG advertisers. While we are meaningfully increasing our 2Q estimates, we remain slightly below consensus. We are similarly constructive on 3Q, supported by Minions 3 and Spider-Man 4, which should drive strong media buyer demand. Finally, we note early signs of incremental demand from technology and AI advertisers, highlighted by recent Claude campaign activity, and expect this category to become a more meaningful contributor over time."
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Shares of National CineMedia closed at $3.12 yesterday.
