Guggenheim Starts CAVA Group Inc (CAVA) at Buy, 'Greens, Grains, and Growth'
Guggenheim analyst Gregory Francfort initiates coverage on CAVA Group Inc (NYSE: CAVA) with a Buy rating and a price target of $100.00.
The analyst comments "Key Message: We are initiating coverage of Cava Group with a Buy rating and $100 price target. The 40x 2027E current EV/EBITDA multiple (burdened by stock comp) is high, but fundamental drivers of CAVA’s business are robust, in our view, including >40% cash-on-cash returns, $2.9mn AUVs, a conservative balance sheet, positive FCF, and a long-term approach to growing SSS amid increasingly short-term focused peers. We project a +24% revenue CAGR over 2025-2028 driving a +32% EBITDA CAGR. Our rating centers around near-term momentum in the business as we believe strong top- and bottom-line beats and revisions should support upside to our price target despite the DCF requiring somewhat aggressive (but not unrealistic) assumptions to get material upside. We model a +6.5% 2026 SSS vs. +4.6% consensus and believe the potential outcomes skew to the upside. 2026 macro risks could keep the stock from reaching the ~$125-150 range seen in late 2024, but accelerating SSS and positive earnings revisions seem likely to drive the stock higher from current levels."
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Shares of CAVA Group Inc closed at $80.29 yesterday.
