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Fed's Miran says pre-war forecast of four rate cuts in 2026 unchanged

March 23, 2026 9:41 AM

Investing.com -- Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said Monday the central bank should not adjust monetary policy based on short-term factors tied to the US and Israel's war in Iran.

"We should wait for all the information to come in before really changing our outlook," Miran said in an interview on Bloomberg Surveillance. "And I think it's just still premature to have a clear view about what this is going to look like as you look 12 months out."

The conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices sharply higher, creating potential upward pressure on inflation while weighing on economic growth and the labor market.

Despite acknowledging a risk that sustained high oil prices could spread to other goods and services, Miran said his pre-war forecast of four rate cuts this year remains unchanged.

The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its meeting last week for a second straight time, as policymakers noted increased economic uncertainty from the war. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed the need for officials to see more progress on lowering inflation. Miran dissented against the decision, favoring a quarter-point reduction.

Earlier Monday, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said the central bank could either raise interest rates or resume rate cuts, depending on how the war affects the economy.

"We could be back to the environment with multiple rate cuts for the year if inflation behaves," Goolsbee said in a CNBC interview. "I could see circumstances where we would need to raise rates if it was going a different way, and inflation was getting out of control."

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