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Mizuho upgrades MongoDB on AI-driven demand and stronger customer growth

March 23, 2026 9:06 AM

Investing.com -- Mizuho upgraded MongoDB to Outperform from Neutral, citing improving growth trends, rising customer additions, and sustained demand tied to artificial intelligence workloads.

The brokerage raised its price target to $325 from $290, arguing the stock’s recent decline after fourth-quarter results has created a more attractive entry point.

MongoDB added a record 10700 net customers in fiscal 2026, up 60% from a year earlier, while net revenue retention rose to 121% from 118%.

Revenue grew 23% even as headcount increased just 1%, indicating tighter cost control and higher efficiency.

Mizuho expects multiple growth drivers to support further gains. A revised sales strategy under new CEO CJ Desai combines enterprise relationships with renewed focus on developers, which the bank says is already improving sales execution. It also expects expansion beyond MongoDB’s core document database to broaden usage.

The brokerage forecasts fiscal 2027 revenue of about $3.07 billion, implying 25% growth and above consensus estimates of $2.90 billion. It expects margin expansion as higher revenue flows through a relatively lean cost base.

Mizuho said artificial intelligence is likely to drive sustained demand rather than disrupt MongoDB’s business. AI-based applications require more data storage and processing, increasing database workloads. Around 30% of MongoDB’s Atlas revenue is already tied to AI-related use cases, which the bank views as an early indicator of longer-term demand.

Over time, MongoDB’s shift toward a broader data platform, including search and vector capabilities, is expected to deepen customer usage.

About 70% of Atlas annual recurring revenue comes from customers using multiple products, generating significantly higher spending than single-product users.

The bank values the company at about 8 times expected 2027 revenue, in line with peers, and sees further upside as growth drivers strengthen.

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