Morgan Stanley on Grab Holdings Inc. (GRAB): 'Valuation looks reasonable'
Morgan Stanley analyst Divya Gangahar Kothiyal reiterated an Overweight rating and $6.40 price target on Grab Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: GRAB).
The analyst comments "#1: Valuation: Valuation looks reasonable as US$600mn implies a trailing EV/GMV of 0.34x (Grab is at 0.44x). Using the incremental adj. EBITDA guidance of at least $60mn in 2028, EV/adj. EBITDA would be 10x on 2028. Grab has a strong balance sheet with net cash of US$5.4bn, as of Dec-25. It is useful to note that in 2024, Uber had agreed to acquire foodpanda Taiwan for US$950mn but this was terminated due to regulatory bottlenecks and anti-competitive concerns as it would have increased the combined entity's market share to 90%. #2: Asset and market landscape: foodpanda Taiwan has roughly ~50% market share in Taiwan with presence in 21 cities and 10% user penetration. Its GMV in 2025 was ~US$1.8bn, which is 13% of Grab's Deliveries GMV (8% of Grab's total ODS GMV). It also had positive adj. EBITDA (before the allocation of Delivery Hero’s group costs). Taiwan is likely to be a lower growth market than ASEAN, therefore we believe it's important to know how the acquisition would fit into Grab's strategy and the growth levers it can bring to the business. The implied 2028 adj. EBITDA of at least $60bn would imply a margin of ~3% assuming a GMV CAGR of 5% (Grab's long-term margin guidance for deliveries is ~4%). #3: Relationship with Uber a key question: Uber (covered by Brian Nowak) and Grab do not compete in any existing markets. This acquisition will make them compete head on in Taiwan as both players have roughly equal market share, per our channel checks. We note that Uber's ~13.5% strategic stake in Grab may raise investor questions relating to this acquisition. #4: Synergies: As a new market for Grab, we see limited synergies. However, ~30% of visitors to Taiwan in 2025 came from ASEAN – a target market Grab could leverage better. Also, as a relatively well-funded operator with stronger innovative product suites backed by AI-powered tools, we think Grab can improve consumer experience and improve foodpanda's share in under-indexed cities/regions. #5: Adjacencies: Groceries would be an obvious adjacency, in our view, given Grab's increasing focus on GrabMart in ASEAN. Penetration and opportunities from this extension as well as advertising would be useful to understand. But a bigger question for us is whether Grab sees this market expansion as a segue into the Taiwan ride-hailing market (down the road, maybe) and if there are any restrictions on that with respect to their relationship with Uber. Incremental use of cash for acquisitions (including foodpanda's ASEAN assets) is another relevant question for management."
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Shares of Grab Holdings Inc. closed at $3.56 yesterday.
