Investing.com -- HSBC has issued a number of rating and target-price raises across the integrated oil sector, saying the Middle East supply shock has triggered “substantial upward revisions” to earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

Senior analyst Kim Fustier said the bank now upgrades Chevron to Buy, raises BP to Hold, and downgrades Galp to Hold, while maintaining neutral or cautious stances on ENI, Equinor, Repsol, Shell, TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil.

Target prices across the group rise by an average of 22%, with the BP target raised to 565p, Chevron to $215, Exxon to $158, Shell to 3,350p, TotalEnergies to EUR77, Galp to EUR21, Occidental to $68 and ENI to EUR21

HSBC noted that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since Feb. 28 has created “an unprecedented physical disruption” in oil, refining and LNG markets.

The bank raised its 2026 macro assumptions materially, lifting Brent to $80 a barrel from $65, European TTF gas to $14/mBtu from $10, and refining margins by 50%.

While many oil majors face volume losses due to regional exposure, HSBC said this is “more than offset by higher oil & gas prices.”

Companies with limited exposure to the Middle East, such as Equinor, Repsol, and ENI, have rallied the most.

HSBC now lifts 2026 earnings estimates on average by 50% and 2027 estimates by 13%, with the biggest upgrades for oil-levered BP and Chevron, refiners such as Repsol, and gas-exposed Equinor.

Even so, HSBC warned valuations “look broadly fair,” with shares trading near all-time highs, though strong commodity momentum “may well carry stocks higher.”