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S&P 500 at 6,000? BTIG's Krinsky says odds are 'decent'

March 19, 2026 9:01 AM

Investing.com -- BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky warned in a note on yesterday that the U.S. equity backdrop continues to deteriorate, with key technical levels under pressure and the S&P 500 at risk of a deeper slide.

Krinsky noted that the index is now testing its 200-day moving average at 6,615 for the third time, and “we have little confidence of it holding as support.”

Krinsky pointed to the November low of 6,521 as a more meaningful line to watch but reiterated that “we continue to see further downside risk and would think a move towards 6,000 has a decent probability.”

He added that market momentum remains weak and “the onus is on the bulls to disprove the recent downtrend.”

A close back above roughly 6,900 would be needed for bears to lose control, BTIG said.

BTIG also highlighted renewed weakness across major indexes, noting the Dow is breaking below its own 200-day moving average.

Financials remain the worst-performing group year-to-date, down 11 percent, with “little evidence that the recent downtrend is over.”

Micron reported earnings after the close on Wednesday, and Krinsky said the reaction is critical, given semiconductors’ heavy weighting in the broader market.

“As always we care about the price reaction to the news, more than the news itself,” he wrote. Premarket on Thursday, Micron is down 7%.

Consumer discretionary stocks also look vulnerable, with BTIG warning that XLY under $110 would signal “a major breakdown.” Homebuilders are hitting fresh cycle lows.

BTIG advised covering staples shorts as the sector falls into its $82–$83 support zone but stressed it is “too soon to look for staples as a long.”

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