Investing.com -- Tesla’s progress in deploying an unsupervised robotaxi fleet is the single biggest driver of its shares in 2026, according to Morgan Stanley in a note on Wednesday.

The bank’s analyst, Andrew Percoco, wrote that “TSLA's ability to scale the unsupervised robotaxi fleet is the most important catalyst for the stock this year.”

Morgan Stanley said its meetings at the TMT conference and a tour of Giga Texas left analysts “incrementally more positive on the outlook for robotaxi and Cybercab production,” with start of production still “on track for April.”

“Superior robotaxi unit economics are supported by vertical integration and innovative Cybercab production – Tesla is changing the way cars are made,” wrote Percoco.

Crucially, Morgan Stanley noted that each additional robotaxi mile “accelerates learning for personal FSD,” which the firm sees as a powerful flywheel for the broader business.

The note highlighted that more unsupervised miles improve the autonomy model, which “supports higher FSD attach rates and re-accelerates auto demand,” ultimately lifting cash flow generation.

The bank also pointed to other upcoming milestones. It expects Optimus Gen 3 to be unveiled in the coming months, with production slated for the second half of 2026. Energy storage remains a growth area, although Morgan Stanley warned margins could compress this year due to competition and tariff timing.

With rising capital expenditure and “near-term cash burn” of roughly $8 billion, the firm said progress in personal FSD is a key lever to “re-invigorate auto sales and margins” and fund Tesla’s long-term ambitions in physical AI.