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Airlines target cut on fuel costs but stock declines may be nearing a bottom

March 16, 2026 10:25 AM

Investing.com -- Rising jet fuel prices has UBS analysts cut price targets on U.S. airline stocks, though they say recent share declines may indicate the group is approaching a bottom.

UBS expects several airlines to preannounce first-quarter results early this week. Most carriers are likely to guide results toward the midpoint of their forecasts.

Fuel prices spiked in early March, but airlines typically hold about two weeks of fuel inventory, meaning higher prices should affect roughly half of the quarter. That could limit the drag on first-quarter earnings.

Airlines have also reported solid demand through the quarter, which could support revenue per available seat mile, or RASM. But many carriers will suspend full-year 2026 guidance because of uncertainty around fuel prices.

The brokerage said United Airlines could benefit from higher revenue and lower labor costs as it has not yet finalized a flight attendant contract. That may help offset higher fuel costs.

Earnings at Delta Air Lines and Alaska Air Group to land near the midpoint of guidance, says UBS.

At American Airlines, which has greater sensitivity to fuel costs, earnings could come in near the lower end of its outlook.

UBS sees lower 2026 profit across the sector as it sees 2026 earnings for Delta now at $5.85 a share from $7.17 and lowered its price target to $83 from $87.

It cut United’s 2026 estimate to $10.22 from $13.56 and trimmed the target price to $134 from $147.

American Airlines saw one of the largest revisions, with UBS cutting its 2026 earnings estimate to $0.43 from $2.21 because of higher fuel exposure.

Though the sharp selloff in airline shares could mean the sector is nearing a bottom. Since late February shares of airlines have fallen between about 17% and 30%, like the declines seen in early 2022 when fuel prices surged after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.

If fuel prices continue rising or higher inflation can cause consumers to cut back on travel.

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