Morgan Stanley cuts Hormuz transit estimates on data review.

Investing.com - Morgan Stanley revised downward its estimates of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, reporting that no crude, refined product or LNG tankers exited the Persian Gulf via the strait on March 12, compared with roughly 35 vessels normally. The bank said vessel position data has become increasingly noisy since the conflict began, prompting a full review of all estimates.

The investment bank previously indicated roughly 2-6 transits per day but now estimates closer to 0-2 vessels per day over the past 11 days. The revision reflects challenges of working with degraded positioning data due to elevated levels of AIS disruption and spoofing. Morgan Stanley said the revision does not materially alter market implications, as movements through Hormuz remain drastically curtailed whether flows are down by 85% or 95%.

Secretary Bessent said the U.S. Navy could escort vessels "as soon as militarily possible," while The Wall Street Journal reports the Pentagon is moving a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East. Prior to the disruption, roughly 25 oil and LNG tankers transited the strait each day.

Saudi Arabia's oil production cuts reportedly amount to 2 million barrels per day so far, according to Reuters sources, from roughly 10 million barrels per day before the conflict. China's Sinopec, the world's largest refiner, reportedly aims to cut throughput by more than 10% due to lack of crude, according to Reuters sources.

Morgan Stanley said it plans to publish its daily tracker for another week, including maps of tanker positions, transit metrics for different vessel classes, freight rates, and a timestamped summary of key developments and risks.